If the USMCA agreement collapses, Canada would lose 102,000 jobs, and a significant portion of those losses would be in sectors where Latinos work.

A report by the Canadian American Business Council, released Tuesday, estimated that a complete collapse of the USMCA trade agreement would cost Canada 102,000 jobs, compared to 214,000 in the United States. This figure comes amid Canada’s ongoing negotiations to avoid the August 19 deadline, with the automotive sector identified as the most vulnerable.

Why the automotive sector in particular?

The report warns that the United States is seeking to block Canadian-made cars from entering the U.S. market. This scenario could push manufacturers like Honda, Toyota, and Nissan to move production to the United States.

And what does this have to do with the Latin community in Canada?

This is where the report moves beyond a general figure and becomes more specific, although it’s important to distinguish who each statistic describes. According to a Statistics Canada analysis published in June on the Latin American population in Canada, Central American men with established status in the country are concentrated, more than in any other occupational group, in “trades, transportation, and equipment operation,” at 40.4%. In a different group, that of non-permanent residents with work permits, manufacturing is the second most common sector among Latin American workers, at 11.8%, just behind professional services.

This concentration had already been noted. In April, a report by this same publication described the Latino community in Canada as having a “high presence in sectors such as construction, food processing, logistics, and assembly lines,” and singled out the automotive, steel, and aluminum industries as “especially concerning” given the ongoing job cuts. That same article quoted Brendon Bernard, an economist at Indeed Canada, describing the labor market as “fairly stable, and perhaps the most accurate word for that is: stagnant,” and specified that manufacturing had lost more than 51,000 jobs in twelve months, “concentrated mainly in Ontario,” the province with the most automotive plants in the country.

Is there a safety net if this happens?

The Ontario government, in conjunction with the federal government, already has the Workforce Response to Tariffs program in place. Announced in March, it is designed to support displaced workers in the steel, manufacturing, wood, and automotive sectors, providing training subsidies, job search assistance, and temporary financial support. If the USMCA collapses on August 19, this program will have to absorb a surge in demand that is still uncertain.

Written by: Mauricio Navas Talero LJI Reporter